Neat: Grand designs for interstellar travel
Sunday, November 29, 2009
Thursday, November 26, 2009
Gender differences
There is an interesting gender difference in street hawking here (Juliet pointed this out). You see men street selling random objects they seem to have happened upon, aimlessly wandering amidst gridlocked cars with a a set of power strips and tape measures in one hand, and a lint brush and foam block in other other (an actual example...another today: "tummy trimmer" exercise machine, laptop screen cleaner, and barber kit). In contrast, women tend to be focused on the key junctions and bus stations, where they operate small businesses selling goods like "pure water" bags, fried plantains, or baked goods...things you might actually want to impulse buy.
I don't have a clear explanation for why women don't sell random crap, but maybe it has something to do with social expectations / lack of prestige associated with running a street business. Maybe by hawking random stuff men can pretend it's not their job, it's just something they happen to be doing.
That explanation seems like too much a projection of western values / reasons for job choice, but I don't have a better idea.
I don't have a clear explanation for why women don't sell random crap, but maybe it has something to do with social expectations / lack of prestige associated with running a street business. Maybe by hawking random stuff men can pretend it's not their job, it's just something they happen to be doing.
That explanation seems like too much a projection of western values / reasons for job choice, but I don't have a better idea.
Monday, November 16, 2009
a weekend where everything that could go wrong, did go wrong, but not as badly as it could have
and I had a pretty great time despite this.
Friday, November 13, 2009
Sodom & Gomorrah
Life got a bit busy recently, but unfortunately writing about writing applications is neither enjoyable for me nor entertaining for any readers, so I’m not going to do much more about that. Commentary on life and work in Ghana will take more thought that I want to bother with at the moment. Instead, a post mostly written a few weeks ago about visiting Accra’s most notorious slum, “Sodom and Gomorrah." The second part will come later.
Going to Benin for the weekend tomorrow.
Sodom and Gomorrah
After a shower and good night’s sleep, I set off for an exploration of Sodom and Gomorrah, Accra’s most notorious slum. I have the vague ambition of publishing an article about the slum, but, mainly, I wanted to see the place. The government had recently announced plans to clear the 50,000+ area, destroying the buildings and evicting the residents without paying any compensation or providing alternative housing. Ostensibly, the reason is the slum (which sprung up after an ethnic clash in a yam market in 1980) was supposed to be temporary, and that the residents keep dumping their waste into the nearby lagoon, preventing the completion of a restoration project. Of course, the government (or, rather, individuals in the government) would also benefit handsomely from selling the land on which the slum is built.
It turned out to be the most moving experience I’ve had here. I met up with Isaac, a technoserve driver whom I had asked to accompany me as a translator, and we shared a taxi to the slum. At first I didn’t know what to make of it, or how to start. We simply explored the area, which was a warren of wooden structures, small square boxes made of weathered 2x4-type planks and corrugated metal roofs. Here and there a concrete structure stood out, typically a mosque. Drab and washed out brown/grey in places; elsewhere a riot of colors (clothesline bending heavily under the weight of orange and green skirts, the geometric patterns fluttering against the bright blue shack).
Although I imagine that it would be wretched in the rainy season, right now it was dense-but-livable. Almost all of the narrow streets were clear of feces and rancid odors; businesses seemed lively. Street food stewed in giant vats, a hot mélange; bars played live premiership matches; barbershop window displays featured crudely-drawn smiling black models; and everywhere market stalls. In general the place hummed with activity.
Eventually I walked up to a shopkeeper and started the interview. It proved to be a bit of a struggle, because the issues that I wanted to ask about were either sensitive (how is crime and justice handled in the area, etc.) or rather abstract (property rights and land ownership). Getting poorly educated (or, more accurately, uneducated) people to speak about abstract things, or even to make generalizations, proved to be surprisingly difficult. They issue went beyond language barrier; it was at least partially a conceptual barrier to translation.
At one point he mentioned that most justice issues are handled by local chiefs, who were determined based on “who was there first.” I asked if I could meet one of the chiefs and he said yes, but very surprised. So he quickly ushered me toward through a series of twisting passageways, eventually coming up to a bit of a clearing with a relatively large, open-air tented shade structure. On the concrete floor a dozen young, heavily-muscled men sat around in various plastic chairs and a long wooden bench while a tall heavy-set figure, garbed in white linens and looking like a louche imam, held court.
The slouching disorganized crowd stiffened as I walked in, a mixture of curiosity and baleful stares. Before this ripped-shirt, muscular crowd my interpreter almost looked more out of place than I did, with his glasses, knockoff casual polo shirt and effete university demeanor. The shopkeeper launched into a quick description of what I was there to do, and my interpreter tried to follow-up with a bit more explanation, but he was immediately cut off by one of the young men.
“Yes, go ahead, ask your questions.” So I awkwardly took an empty place on the long bench, with the ringleader (who had yet to say a word) on my right and the crowd on my left. As I commenced, I looked back and forth between the two sides, unsure of where to direct my gaze. My questions were relayed by the self-appointed translator – tall, very dark and lean – to the leader, who then replied in a mixture of English and Twi, which required re-translation.
Again, I struggled with the abstract / sensitive question topics, but things went a bit more smoothly this time. As we continued, I realize that the crowd was swelling around us, and halfway through the interview I was surrounded by a dense crowd of forty or so people.
The crowd was remarkably young, all 16-25. Yahaya Mahamman, the leader, had chosen an apt title for himself: Chief of the “Zaachi” (youth). With great bravado, Yahaya explained the situation to me: “They have cut off water and electricity; when they come here we will resist and that will bring big troubles.”
And so the interview progressed in fits and starts, first I’d get a set of curt, unsatisfactory one-sentence answers and then, as Yahava grasped what I was asking about, I’d get a long bombastic tirade that gradually veered off-topic, and then I’d ask another series of questions and the cycle would repeat.
On common refrain, heard here and elsewhere, the bitter complaint that, “the Liberians [refugees] have been provided better facilities than we have. The government provides them with running water, food, security; we are Ghanaians and we get nothing.”
His answer on the topic of slum justice was disappointingly political; I asked him what he’d do if someone came to him with a case of robbery, or if it happened to him, and he said: “Oh, that would never happen here” with a half-smile. Pushed, he said that he “organize a group of opinion leaders to assess the situation” and made it clear that that was it.
Eventually I had enough material, and Isaac and I left (now pushing through a crowd) to look for the private clinic operating in Sodom and Gomorrah. We found it, long concrete blocks with corrugated metal roof, like an overgrown slum shack, but unfortunately it was closed for Sunday. Outside the clinic I met Ahlidzah Samuel, a well-fed, rounded man with a generous smile and bald, egg-shaped head.
...
Going to Benin for the weekend tomorrow.
Sodom and Gomorrah
After a shower and good night’s sleep, I set off for an exploration of Sodom and Gomorrah, Accra’s most notorious slum. I have the vague ambition of publishing an article about the slum, but, mainly, I wanted to see the place. The government had recently announced plans to clear the 50,000+ area, destroying the buildings and evicting the residents without paying any compensation or providing alternative housing. Ostensibly, the reason is the slum (which sprung up after an ethnic clash in a yam market in 1980) was supposed to be temporary, and that the residents keep dumping their waste into the nearby lagoon, preventing the completion of a restoration project. Of course, the government (or, rather, individuals in the government) would also benefit handsomely from selling the land on which the slum is built.
It turned out to be the most moving experience I’ve had here. I met up with Isaac, a technoserve driver whom I had asked to accompany me as a translator, and we shared a taxi to the slum. At first I didn’t know what to make of it, or how to start. We simply explored the area, which was a warren of wooden structures, small square boxes made of weathered 2x4-type planks and corrugated metal roofs. Here and there a concrete structure stood out, typically a mosque. Drab and washed out brown/grey in places; elsewhere a riot of colors (clothesline bending heavily under the weight of orange and green skirts, the geometric patterns fluttering against the bright blue shack).
Although I imagine that it would be wretched in the rainy season, right now it was dense-but-livable. Almost all of the narrow streets were clear of feces and rancid odors; businesses seemed lively. Street food stewed in giant vats, a hot mélange; bars played live premiership matches; barbershop window displays featured crudely-drawn smiling black models; and everywhere market stalls. In general the place hummed with activity.
Eventually I walked up to a shopkeeper and started the interview. It proved to be a bit of a struggle, because the issues that I wanted to ask about were either sensitive (how is crime and justice handled in the area, etc.) or rather abstract (property rights and land ownership). Getting poorly educated (or, more accurately, uneducated) people to speak about abstract things, or even to make generalizations, proved to be surprisingly difficult. They issue went beyond language barrier; it was at least partially a conceptual barrier to translation.
At one point he mentioned that most justice issues are handled by local chiefs, who were determined based on “who was there first.” I asked if I could meet one of the chiefs and he said yes, but very surprised. So he quickly ushered me toward through a series of twisting passageways, eventually coming up to a bit of a clearing with a relatively large, open-air tented shade structure. On the concrete floor a dozen young, heavily-muscled men sat around in various plastic chairs and a long wooden bench while a tall heavy-set figure, garbed in white linens and looking like a louche imam, held court.
The slouching disorganized crowd stiffened as I walked in, a mixture of curiosity and baleful stares. Before this ripped-shirt, muscular crowd my interpreter almost looked more out of place than I did, with his glasses, knockoff casual polo shirt and effete university demeanor. The shopkeeper launched into a quick description of what I was there to do, and my interpreter tried to follow-up with a bit more explanation, but he was immediately cut off by one of the young men.
“Yes, go ahead, ask your questions.” So I awkwardly took an empty place on the long bench, with the ringleader (who had yet to say a word) on my right and the crowd on my left. As I commenced, I looked back and forth between the two sides, unsure of where to direct my gaze. My questions were relayed by the self-appointed translator – tall, very dark and lean – to the leader, who then replied in a mixture of English and Twi, which required re-translation.
Again, I struggled with the abstract / sensitive question topics, but things went a bit more smoothly this time. As we continued, I realize that the crowd was swelling around us, and halfway through the interview I was surrounded by a dense crowd of forty or so people.
The crowd was remarkably young, all 16-25. Yahaya Mahamman, the leader, had chosen an apt title for himself: Chief of the “Zaachi” (youth). With great bravado, Yahaya explained the situation to me: “They have cut off water and electricity; when they come here we will resist and that will bring big troubles.”
And so the interview progressed in fits and starts, first I’d get a set of curt, unsatisfactory one-sentence answers and then, as Yahava grasped what I was asking about, I’d get a long bombastic tirade that gradually veered off-topic, and then I’d ask another series of questions and the cycle would repeat.
On common refrain, heard here and elsewhere, the bitter complaint that, “the Liberians [refugees] have been provided better facilities than we have. The government provides them with running water, food, security; we are Ghanaians and we get nothing.”
His answer on the topic of slum justice was disappointingly political; I asked him what he’d do if someone came to him with a case of robbery, or if it happened to him, and he said: “Oh, that would never happen here” with a half-smile. Pushed, he said that he “organize a group of opinion leaders to assess the situation” and made it clear that that was it.
Eventually I had enough material, and Isaac and I left (now pushing through a crowd) to look for the private clinic operating in Sodom and Gomorrah. We found it, long concrete blocks with corrugated metal roof, like an overgrown slum shack, but unfortunately it was closed for Sunday. Outside the clinic I met Ahlidzah Samuel, a well-fed, rounded man with a generous smile and bald, egg-shaped head.
...
Sunday, November 8, 2009
Investment
So, I've decided to invest a portion of my meager savings / worldy possessions. There's really no excuse to be keeping my money in cash, especially with inflation potentially on the horizon. So the question is where.
Intellectually, I know index funds are the best bet, and that confirmation bias in an over-determined world means that you can construct logic for many plausible but incorrect investments. But I spend too much time reading about economic trends (for no particular reason, just find it interesting) to not want to put that to use. And by avoiding the especially dumb investment approaches (buy-sell rapidly, follow hot money, etc.) hopefully I can not lose money. So all of these are "buy and hold" plans.
None of this is particularly new / remarkably insightful, and any comments would be appreciated...
Economic hypothesis:
1. USD faces a long term decline roughly in line with the decline of the US's relative importance in the world. There is also a decent chance that the US will not get a handle on its serious structural deficits (the healthcare bill doesn't help here).
Therefore reserve bank holdings will diversify away from the dollar, etc. etc. However, this will take a long time, and certainly does not preclude the dollar from strengthening in the short/medium term. The US still has deeper capital markets than anyone else; the mooted alternatives to USD do not have a history of unified democratic rule of law; it's not in anyone's interest to have a rapid dollar depreciation.
2. In the near future, US is better placed than EU coming out of the recession. Rationale: Virtues of the anglo-saxon system (fire fast, hire fast); more favorable demographics (stronger population growth / younger worker base); greater transparency on bank losses (european banks have made proportionally much lower markdowns on subprime losses); more liberal reserve bank policies (risks inflation, but should goose growth)
3. Inflation is a real risk in the US (if economy picks up) and the fed will have a hard time putting the brakes on unless we have an unusually strong V-shaped recovery. We'd need to put interest rates up in the midst of an uneven recovery and high unemployment...the Krugman's of the world would be screaming bloody murder and 1933 all over again.
--This contributes to the risk of dollar decline, and doesn't lead to a specific investment, but is one of the reasons I am investing in assets rather than leaving my money in cash.
4. World demand for commodities will continue to grow as the RotW develops, although prices may not go up. The commodity bulls tend to have a stupidly static view of the world, whereby extrapolating present demand shows that it will exceed current supply trends, therefore prices must rise. This misses two key points: For almost all commodities (oil being somewhat an exception), increased prices reduce demand; likewise, they increase supply. And for most products there is plenty of room for increased supply -- this is especially true of agricultural products, where increased production in Russia (where farm land is something like 25% of what it was in the Soviet peak) and Africa (where yields languish at 1/4 or less of first-world norms) can easily meet future demand.
5. Private sector in emerging markets is key source of growth in future; there is an explosion of middle-class demand happening everywhere from China to Ghana to Brazil. In the US and Europe diminishing returns to wealth have set in; we don't buy much more as we increase our GDP per capita, but that's not true in the developing world.
Therefore, I plan to:
1. Invest in US companies with strong potential for sales to the middle/upper classes of developing countries. The US is very good at branding / selling to the bourgeois. E.g., Starbucks, Disney, Coca-Cola, McDonalds.
I'm not investing directly in emerging markets because a) stock market prices have been increasing scarily quickly in the developing world (although it's exaggerated by the dollar's slide); b) any given country could tank due to political instability; c) weak US dollar makes foreign buys expensive at the moment (while part of this will be recaptured over time by the dollar's continued gradual decline, I can get the same benefit by buying US companies with good sales abroad.
2. Short-sell the Euro. It has over-strengthened because of the US's loose monetary policy and because Asian countries are holding the currencies up, forcing any slide to occur against the EUR. This bet could go sour if the US is engulfed in the maelstrom of inflation, but, assuming that that doesn't happen, the USD should recover against the EUR somewhat as the US comes out of recession faster (enabling it to raise interest rates while the EUR stays put or decreases rates) and over time Asian countries let their currency appreciate against the dollar to combat domestic asset price bubbles.
3. Bet on increased volume demand for commodities by investing a) in transport (shipping companies look relatively cheap; I'm sure there are many other options); b) in commodity sellers like Alcoa.
4. Potentially bet on cocao prices. Sales are concentrated in Ghana, Cote d'Ivoire and Indonesia. Ghana's currency will strengthen over the next few years as they start pumping oil. It's neighbor is a basketcase, and Indonesia is a potential basketcase (sorry Matt). Demand will grow over time (see emerging markets middle class point). Supply also takes a long time to respond to increased demand because trees take several years to start bearing significant numbers of beans (5-6 at min), and most of the trees in Ghana are already at the tail end of their useful lifespans but farmers are reluctant to replant while they are still getting some yields. My main concerns: Have the high current prices (not at 07/08 peak, but not far below that) already priced in these risks? And this goes against my long-run view that commodity prices won't appreciate dramatically.
As a side note, and this doesn't feed into any of my investments, I suspect that when I'm older we'll have to learn how to live in a deflationary world. Demographics have turned around much faster than expected and world population will start falling ~2050. Therefore the only source of incremental demand will be more extravagant consumption (eating meat vs. grains, etc.) rather than simply having more people to buy things. In other words, the world will look a lot more like Japan and commodity prices will fall dramatically.
Intellectually, I know index funds are the best bet, and that confirmation bias in an over-determined world means that you can construct logic for many plausible but incorrect investments. But I spend too much time reading about economic trends (for no particular reason, just find it interesting) to not want to put that to use. And by avoiding the especially dumb investment approaches (buy-sell rapidly, follow hot money, etc.) hopefully I can not lose money. So all of these are "buy and hold" plans.
None of this is particularly new / remarkably insightful, and any comments would be appreciated...
Economic hypothesis:
1. USD faces a long term decline roughly in line with the decline of the US's relative importance in the world. There is also a decent chance that the US will not get a handle on its serious structural deficits (the healthcare bill doesn't help here).
Therefore reserve bank holdings will diversify away from the dollar, etc. etc. However, this will take a long time, and certainly does not preclude the dollar from strengthening in the short/medium term. The US still has deeper capital markets than anyone else; the mooted alternatives to USD do not have a history of unified democratic rule of law; it's not in anyone's interest to have a rapid dollar depreciation.
2. In the near future, US is better placed than EU coming out of the recession. Rationale: Virtues of the anglo-saxon system (fire fast, hire fast); more favorable demographics (stronger population growth / younger worker base); greater transparency on bank losses (european banks have made proportionally much lower markdowns on subprime losses); more liberal reserve bank policies (risks inflation, but should goose growth)
3. Inflation is a real risk in the US (if economy picks up) and the fed will have a hard time putting the brakes on unless we have an unusually strong V-shaped recovery. We'd need to put interest rates up in the midst of an uneven recovery and high unemployment...the Krugman's of the world would be screaming bloody murder and 1933 all over again.
--This contributes to the risk of dollar decline, and doesn't lead to a specific investment, but is one of the reasons I am investing in assets rather than leaving my money in cash.
4. World demand for commodities will continue to grow as the RotW develops, although prices may not go up. The commodity bulls tend to have a stupidly static view of the world, whereby extrapolating present demand shows that it will exceed current supply trends, therefore prices must rise. This misses two key points: For almost all commodities (oil being somewhat an exception), increased prices reduce demand; likewise, they increase supply. And for most products there is plenty of room for increased supply -- this is especially true of agricultural products, where increased production in Russia (where farm land is something like 25% of what it was in the Soviet peak) and Africa (where yields languish at 1/4 or less of first-world norms) can easily meet future demand.
5. Private sector in emerging markets is key source of growth in future; there is an explosion of middle-class demand happening everywhere from China to Ghana to Brazil. In the US and Europe diminishing returns to wealth have set in; we don't buy much more as we increase our GDP per capita, but that's not true in the developing world.
Therefore, I plan to:
1. Invest in US companies with strong potential for sales to the middle/upper classes of developing countries. The US is very good at branding / selling to the bourgeois. E.g., Starbucks, Disney, Coca-Cola, McDonalds.
I'm not investing directly in emerging markets because a) stock market prices have been increasing scarily quickly in the developing world (although it's exaggerated by the dollar's slide); b) any given country could tank due to political instability; c) weak US dollar makes foreign buys expensive at the moment (while part of this will be recaptured over time by the dollar's continued gradual decline, I can get the same benefit by buying US companies with good sales abroad.
2. Short-sell the Euro. It has over-strengthened because of the US's loose monetary policy and because Asian countries are holding the currencies up, forcing any slide to occur against the EUR. This bet could go sour if the US is engulfed in the maelstrom of inflation, but, assuming that that doesn't happen, the USD should recover against the EUR somewhat as the US comes out of recession faster (enabling it to raise interest rates while the EUR stays put or decreases rates) and over time Asian countries let their currency appreciate against the dollar to combat domestic asset price bubbles.
3. Bet on increased volume demand for commodities by investing a) in transport (shipping companies look relatively cheap; I'm sure there are many other options); b) in commodity sellers like Alcoa.
4. Potentially bet on cocao prices. Sales are concentrated in Ghana, Cote d'Ivoire and Indonesia. Ghana's currency will strengthen over the next few years as they start pumping oil. It's neighbor is a basketcase, and Indonesia is a potential basketcase (sorry Matt). Demand will grow over time (see emerging markets middle class point). Supply also takes a long time to respond to increased demand because trees take several years to start bearing significant numbers of beans (5-6 at min), and most of the trees in Ghana are already at the tail end of their useful lifespans but farmers are reluctant to replant while they are still getting some yields. My main concerns: Have the high current prices (not at 07/08 peak, but not far below that) already priced in these risks? And this goes against my long-run view that commodity prices won't appreciate dramatically.
As a side note, and this doesn't feed into any of my investments, I suspect that when I'm older we'll have to learn how to live in a deflationary world. Demographics have turned around much faster than expected and world population will start falling ~2050. Therefore the only source of incremental demand will be more extravagant consumption (eating meat vs. grains, etc.) rather than simply having more people to buy things. In other words, the world will look a lot more like Japan and commodity prices will fall dramatically.
Saturday, November 7, 2009
Is restricted suffrage such a bad idea?
Thailand, Venezuala, Russia...All countries that would probably be better off if only people who owned property, say, or had a higher education degree could vote.
Obviously I'm cherry-picking examples to bolster a controversial point, but it's not clear to me that we should just assume that universal sufferage is the right approach for any new democracy.
Beyond the obvious benefit of having more educated/intelligent voters make better decisions -- the link between education and sound social-economic policies may be tenuous* but probably applies in the extreme cases, e.g. illiterate farmers' votes -- limited democracy can reduce the risk of ethnic tensions/splintering society. When amassing mass support is necessary, demagogues have a strong incentive to carve out ethnically-based voting blocks. This doesn't disappear in limited democracy, but seems like it would be more limited. In most cases, limited democracy would also be less of an exogenous shock on the traditional social systems, which (making a wild generalization here) tend to have a leaders checked by a limited network of other powerful figures in society (e.g., king/nobles, multiparty clans, etc.) rather than directly from the base of society. And, as long as suffrage were wide enough to avoid oligarchic rule or apartheid-like rule (a real risk if all of your educated landowners are a different ethnicity, as in some South American states), limited democracy should provide a more powerful check on corruption -- it's harder to bribe wealthier / more world-aware citizens.
That said, if the local populace were clamoring for voting rights, denying them would cause significant civil tension. But is the average Afghan goat-herder desperate to vote? I doubt it. Here in Ghana, the typical cocoa farmer answer has been "not very" when asked how important living in a democratic multiparty state is to him. Poor people have different priorities than Western constitution-drafting state department / international development bourgeoisie.
This raises the question of where/when should suffrage be restricted. No one-size-fits-all rule could work (after all, with a blanket rule we'd probably have missed out on the great Indian democratic success). But even if making judgments a-priori is difficult, it seems plausible that, in poor states without a history of democratic systems, we should explore more limited forms of democracy rather than blindly applying our messianic template.
*This argument assumes that there are certain policies that are "sound" (e.g., laws that limit human rights abuse, avoiding sliding into dictatorship, and adhere to some broad outlines of free market capitalism) and some that are not.
Obviously I'm cherry-picking examples to bolster a controversial point, but it's not clear to me that we should just assume that universal sufferage is the right approach for any new democracy.
Beyond the obvious benefit of having more educated/intelligent voters make better decisions -- the link between education and sound social-economic policies may be tenuous* but probably applies in the extreme cases, e.g. illiterate farmers' votes -- limited democracy can reduce the risk of ethnic tensions/splintering society. When amassing mass support is necessary, demagogues have a strong incentive to carve out ethnically-based voting blocks. This doesn't disappear in limited democracy, but seems like it would be more limited. In most cases, limited democracy would also be less of an exogenous shock on the traditional social systems, which (making a wild generalization here) tend to have a leaders checked by a limited network of other powerful figures in society (e.g., king/nobles, multiparty clans, etc.) rather than directly from the base of society. And, as long as suffrage were wide enough to avoid oligarchic rule or apartheid-like rule (a real risk if all of your educated landowners are a different ethnicity, as in some South American states), limited democracy should provide a more powerful check on corruption -- it's harder to bribe wealthier / more world-aware citizens.
That said, if the local populace were clamoring for voting rights, denying them would cause significant civil tension. But is the average Afghan goat-herder desperate to vote? I doubt it. Here in Ghana, the typical cocoa farmer answer has been "not very" when asked how important living in a democratic multiparty state is to him. Poor people have different priorities than Western constitution-drafting state department / international development bourgeoisie.
This raises the question of where/when should suffrage be restricted. No one-size-fits-all rule could work (after all, with a blanket rule we'd probably have missed out on the great Indian democratic success). But even if making judgments a-priori is difficult, it seems plausible that, in poor states without a history of democratic systems, we should explore more limited forms of democracy rather than blindly applying our messianic template.
*This argument assumes that there are certain policies that are "sound" (e.g., laws that limit human rights abuse, avoiding sliding into dictatorship, and adhere to some broad outlines of free market capitalism) and some that are not.
Thursday, November 5, 2009
Amazing
"Kelly [a dolphin] has taken this task one step further. When people drop paper into the water she hides it under a rock at the bottom of the pool. The next time a trainer passes, she goes down to the rock and tears off a piece of paper to give to the trainer. After a fish reward, she goes back down, tears off another piece of paper, gets another fish, and so on. This behaviour is interesting because it shows that Kelly has a sense of the future and delays gratification. She has realised that a big piece of paper gets the same reward as a small piece and so delivers only small pieces to keep the extra food coming. She has, in effect, trained the humans.
Her cunning has not stopped there. One day, when a gull flew into her pool, she grabbed it, waited for the trainers and then gave it to them. It was a large bird and so the trainers gave her lots of fish. This seemed to give Kelly a new idea. The next time she was fed, instead of eating the last fish, she took it to the bottom of the pool and hid it under the rock where she had been hiding the paper. When no trainers were present, she brought the fish to the surface and used it to lure the gulls, which she would catch to get even more fish. After mastering this lucrative strategy, she taught her calf, who taught other calves, and so gull-baiting has become a hot game among the dolphins."
Damn. I'm usually skeptical about kind of anthropomorphizing, but how cool.
Her cunning has not stopped there. One day, when a gull flew into her pool, she grabbed it, waited for the trainers and then gave it to them. It was a large bird and so the trainers gave her lots of fish. This seemed to give Kelly a new idea. The next time she was fed, instead of eating the last fish, she took it to the bottom of the pool and hid it under the rock where she had been hiding the paper. When no trainers were present, she brought the fish to the surface and used it to lure the gulls, which she would catch to get even more fish. After mastering this lucrative strategy, she taught her calf, who taught other calves, and so gull-baiting has become a hot game among the dolphins."
Damn. I'm usually skeptical about kind of anthropomorphizing, but how cool.
Tuesday, November 3, 2009
Behold, I show you the last European
So, Klaus just signed the Lisbon treaty, and the EU juggernaut rolls on. European press commentary is interesting. Why isn’t there more outrage about how undemocratic the process has been? Major nation states have just given away huge swaths of sovereignty to an institution with effectively no democratic accountability, and have done so against the will of their people. Only three nations were brave enough to vote on it, and two of those voted no until they were told that that’s the wrong answer and they have to vote again. Why is it that the new federalist right wing party gets lambasted for having somewhat unsavory characters, while the centralist parties that have far more loony characters get a free pass?
I was recently asked why I am oppose the Lisbon Treaty, and I have a set of rational reasons (detailed below), but ultimately I think that it is also a visceral distaste for what the EU represents. At the core of the EU project is an insipid void; it is the heartless, passionless end-game of bureaucratic, Weberian rationalization.
The EU represents an element of Europe, and European-ness that I deeply dislike. It’s the desire to swaddle life in rules and restrictions, the Precautionary Principle, as if by measuring and adhering to the right rules and procedures we eliminate any chance of error (and as if that that’s the most important thing). This is what produces such loose and baggy monsters like the Lisbon Treaty (384 pages "reader friendly" version vs. the Constitution's elegant 4 pages) and self-parodies like the ICC court. Without God they’ve turned to constitutional proceduralism as the source of meaning. How horrible. And, of course, this is combined with a haughty, tone of moral superiority that disdains the (for lack of a better word) American approach.
This is reflected in everything from Europe's self-righteous yet passive and gutless foreign policy – proclaiming the importance of human rights and UN rules but not even taking a serious stand against genocide in their own backyard – to enforced equality and mediocrity (cf: tax codes; education system). The risk-averse regulatory policy is a reflection of a spiritual malaise; Burning Man (for all its flaws) could never take place in Europe.
In Nietzsche's words:
“The earth has become small, and on it hops the last man, who makes everything small. His race is as ineradicable as the flea; the last man lives longest.
'We have invented happiness,'say the last men, and they blink. They have left the regions where it was hard to live, for one needs warmth. One still loves one's neighbor and rubs against him, for one needs warmth...
One still works, for work is a form of entertainment. But one is careful lest the entertainment be too harrowing. One no longer becomes poor or rich: both require too much exertion. Who still wants to rule? Who obey? Both require too much exertion.
No shepherd and one herd! Everybody wants the same, everybody is the same: whoever feels different goes voluntarily into a madhouse.
'Formerly, all the world was mad,' say the most refined, and they blink...
One has one's little pleasure for the day and one's little pleasure for the night: but one has a regard for health.
'We have invented happiness,' say the last men, and they blink."
Of course, this is an exaggeration and generalization. And the "American Cowboy" approach has serious problems -- as its Bush-era connotations reflect -- but at least it is not life-denying. The US is far more dangerous on the world stage than senescent Europe, but those are the same qualities that make the US capable of greatness/inspiration.
As for my rational reasons:
A) EU is deeply undemocratic; no one votes for EU Parliamentary elections, and therefore concentrating power in EU hands is generally a bad unless there is a clear, strong benefit (e.g., maybe with trade policy).
The democracy problem goes beyond apathy: Even if people did vote, there are structural issues with the EU Parliament that dilute democratic accountability.
1) it's unclear what any European-wide coalition stands for (all amalgamations off diffuse parties) therefore you can't really express meaningful democratic voice;
2) the EU is so damned complicated it's unclear clear "who is to blame" if you want to change something;
3) Many important powers are still reserved to heads of state, creating a weirdly antidemocratic space (because voters election heads of state on national issues, and don't tend to scrutinize their EU dealings as much)
This anti-democracy is inherently bad (democracy being probably a good thing), but also has bad policymaking effects:
-Enables grubby backroom dealings and corrupt lobbying (no sunlight disinfectant); MEPs have gotten away with shocking corruption and obscene salaries/expenses. People out of sight given a big pot of money and not held accountable for any outcome are unlikely to behave properly
-Reduces accountability for bad policies; democracy doesn't punish bad policies very effectively (because its hard to see cause / effect on complex systems over time) but it's better than nothing
B) Even apart from the democracy issue, I think that the EU tends to pass regulation-oriented, statist laws. It's not that they are pursing left-wing goals; it is that they are pursing them typically through the most pedantic, bureaucratic approachs. Can't help but see the end result as an ossified super-state.
Part of this is its "pro-bureaucracy" institutional mentality. EU self-selects for more intervention-minded, pro-regulation and anti-liberty (personal and economic) people simply because that is its dominant culture and outsiders tend to either get sucked in or frustrated. I mean, every document is translated into 26 languages and there are two fucking parliaments. Only a bureaucrat can flourish in that kind of environment.
C) In general, I like the idea of Europe as having a great deal of diversity, and the EU reduces this over time. The federalist / laboratories of democracy argument is very strong when people have such strongly different cultural histories and yet can move around with relative ease.
There are also reasons to dislike Lisbon specifically
D) Lisbon is explicitly setup to enable a "slippery slope" toward EU statehood, by creating a head of state, allowing it to annex addt'l powers without requiring a new treaty, etc. See anti-democracy issues above.
E) Distaste for the way it has been forced through; only two referendums across 26 states -- none in the UK despite Labour's manifesto promise -- and a "stupid Irish, you voted the wrong way, try again" attitude. From the start, the EU has been an elite project imposed upon the people, and it shows.
Note (in response to a comment): As I was writing it, I realized that "insipid void" was Friedman-esq as a nonsensical description, but decided that both words convey part of what my meaning, so damn logic.
I was recently asked why I am oppose the Lisbon Treaty, and I have a set of rational reasons (detailed below), but ultimately I think that it is also a visceral distaste for what the EU represents. At the core of the EU project is an insipid void; it is the heartless, passionless end-game of bureaucratic, Weberian rationalization.
The EU represents an element of Europe, and European-ness that I deeply dislike. It’s the desire to swaddle life in rules and restrictions, the Precautionary Principle, as if by measuring and adhering to the right rules and procedures we eliminate any chance of error (and as if that that’s the most important thing). This is what produces such loose and baggy monsters like the Lisbon Treaty (384 pages "reader friendly" version vs. the Constitution's elegant 4 pages) and self-parodies like the ICC court. Without God they’ve turned to constitutional proceduralism as the source of meaning. How horrible. And, of course, this is combined with a haughty, tone of moral superiority that disdains the (for lack of a better word) American approach.
This is reflected in everything from Europe's self-righteous yet passive and gutless foreign policy – proclaiming the importance of human rights and UN rules but not even taking a serious stand against genocide in their own backyard – to enforced equality and mediocrity (cf: tax codes; education system). The risk-averse regulatory policy is a reflection of a spiritual malaise; Burning Man (for all its flaws) could never take place in Europe.
In Nietzsche's words:
“The earth has become small, and on it hops the last man, who makes everything small. His race is as ineradicable as the flea; the last man lives longest.
'We have invented happiness,'say the last men, and they blink. They have left the regions where it was hard to live, for one needs warmth. One still loves one's neighbor and rubs against him, for one needs warmth...
One still works, for work is a form of entertainment. But one is careful lest the entertainment be too harrowing. One no longer becomes poor or rich: both require too much exertion. Who still wants to rule? Who obey? Both require too much exertion.
No shepherd and one herd! Everybody wants the same, everybody is the same: whoever feels different goes voluntarily into a madhouse.
'Formerly, all the world was mad,' say the most refined, and they blink...
One has one's little pleasure for the day and one's little pleasure for the night: but one has a regard for health.
'We have invented happiness,' say the last men, and they blink."
Of course, this is an exaggeration and generalization. And the "American Cowboy" approach has serious problems -- as its Bush-era connotations reflect -- but at least it is not life-denying. The US is far more dangerous on the world stage than senescent Europe, but those are the same qualities that make the US capable of greatness/inspiration.
As for my rational reasons:
A) EU is deeply undemocratic; no one votes for EU Parliamentary elections, and therefore concentrating power in EU hands is generally a bad unless there is a clear, strong benefit (e.g., maybe with trade policy).
The democracy problem goes beyond apathy: Even if people did vote, there are structural issues with the EU Parliament that dilute democratic accountability.
1) it's unclear what any European-wide coalition stands for (all amalgamations off diffuse parties) therefore you can't really express meaningful democratic voice;
2) the EU is so damned complicated it's unclear clear "who is to blame" if you want to change something;
3) Many important powers are still reserved to heads of state, creating a weirdly antidemocratic space (because voters election heads of state on national issues, and don't tend to scrutinize their EU dealings as much)
This anti-democracy is inherently bad (democracy being probably a good thing), but also has bad policymaking effects:
-Enables grubby backroom dealings and corrupt lobbying (no sunlight disinfectant); MEPs have gotten away with shocking corruption and obscene salaries/expenses. People out of sight given a big pot of money and not held accountable for any outcome are unlikely to behave properly
-Reduces accountability for bad policies; democracy doesn't punish bad policies very effectively (because its hard to see cause / effect on complex systems over time) but it's better than nothing
B) Even apart from the democracy issue, I think that the EU tends to pass regulation-oriented, statist laws. It's not that they are pursing left-wing goals; it is that they are pursing them typically through the most pedantic, bureaucratic approachs. Can't help but see the end result as an ossified super-state.
Part of this is its "pro-bureaucracy" institutional mentality. EU self-selects for more intervention-minded, pro-regulation and anti-liberty (personal and economic) people simply because that is its dominant culture and outsiders tend to either get sucked in or frustrated. I mean, every document is translated into 26 languages and there are two fucking parliaments. Only a bureaucrat can flourish in that kind of environment.
C) In general, I like the idea of Europe as having a great deal of diversity, and the EU reduces this over time. The federalist / laboratories of democracy argument is very strong when people have such strongly different cultural histories and yet can move around with relative ease.
There are also reasons to dislike Lisbon specifically
D) Lisbon is explicitly setup to enable a "slippery slope" toward EU statehood, by creating a head of state, allowing it to annex addt'l powers without requiring a new treaty, etc. See anti-democracy issues above.
E) Distaste for the way it has been forced through; only two referendums across 26 states -- none in the UK despite Labour's manifesto promise -- and a "stupid Irish, you voted the wrong way, try again" attitude. From the start, the EU has been an elite project imposed upon the people, and it shows.
Note (in response to a comment): As I was writing it, I realized that "insipid void" was Friedman-esq as a nonsensical description, but decided that both words convey part of what my meaning, so damn logic.
Wednesday, October 28, 2009
Important discovery
Fluid dynamicists have worked out how to stop teapots from dribbling
"The problem with teapots is their annoying habit of dribbling, particularly at low rates of flow. The phenomenon has achieved such notoriety that it has been imaginatively dubbed the 'teapot effect'."
I'll try to write something about life in Ghana soon.
"The problem with teapots is their annoying habit of dribbling, particularly at low rates of flow. The phenomenon has achieved such notoriety that it has been imaginatively dubbed the 'teapot effect'."
I'll try to write something about life in Ghana soon.
Monday, October 26, 2009
quick note of the day
On Italy: "After a century in which its ancient civilization has been hollowed out, Italy is nothing but a republic without virtue, living under the heel of a clapped-out Casanova."
Saturday, October 24, 2009
signs of sclerotic state institutions/laws
6 separate taxes paid to receive personal mail if sent to a Ghana Post PO Box:
20.0% - Import duty
12.5% - VAT
02.5% - "Health Insurance Levy"
02.0% - "Social levy"
01.5% - Processing fee
00.5% - ECOWAS tax
=39% tax
+ 3 cedies post office handling fee (this may have been a bribe, not sure)
20.0% - Import duty
12.5% - VAT
02.5% - "Health Insurance Levy"
02.0% - "Social levy"
01.5% - Processing fee
00.5% - ECOWAS tax
=39% tax
+ 3 cedies post office handling fee (this may have been a bribe, not sure)
Thursday, October 22, 2009
minor revelation
Despite a decade of imitation (ever more tired), the Libertines still sound fresh. No one has combined the modern guitar jangle of the Strokes -- who also aged surprisingly well, at least "is this it" and "room on fire" -- and the raw energy of the clash/sex pistols. And moments of quite beautiful poetic lyricism. Seriously, listen to them again.
Also, Mick Jones's production, what a godsend. Doesn't sacrifice their visceral sound (again, reaching for the adjective "raw") for the sake of smooth radio friendliness.
Edited: I'm an idiot, Mick Jones not Jagger.
Also, Mick Jones's production, what a godsend. Doesn't sacrifice their visceral sound (again, reaching for the adjective "raw") for the sake of smooth radio friendliness.
Edited: I'm an idiot, Mick Jones not Jagger.
Wednesday, October 21, 2009
At least someone important agrees with me
Finally Mervin King says what I've been thinking for a while: Proposed regulatory reforms will not prevent another financial crisis. Why aren't more people concerned about this?
The whole "better regulation" fallacy is enormously frustrating. The political commentary class always seems to think that we can solve a problem by having better/smarter regulatory oversight (implying that previously either people weren't given such responsibility, or that they were incompetent/negligent). But most of the time crises are caused by an "unknown unknown" (or black swan or whatever you wish). Regulators are not omniscient and they focus on preventing the causes of the last crisis, which is completely natural, but leads them to be blindsided by the future problem.
Does anyone really think that if we had had better regulation someone would have foreseen the mortgage crisis and stepped in? If thousands of people with huge financial incentives to do so failed, I doubt a regulator would. It's simply too difficult to divine the potential cause of problems in the future with complex systems. After all, central planning would work better if such regulation were possible (cf hayek / information asymmetry). And even if they had magically identified the problem, there would be enormous political obstacles to intervention, which would require causing clear short-term harm to avoid hypothetical long-term damage (accusations of crying wolf etc.).
So, what can / should we do? Instead of focusing on setting up more magic regulators, we need to have laws that structure the 'rules of the game' in a way that minimizes the potential for crises (e.g., reinstate the glass-steagal act). This is not to say that regulators have no useful role; it's just that "better regulatory oversight" is not going to avert a future financial crisis.
edit: And Volcker agrees with me too
The whole "better regulation" fallacy is enormously frustrating. The political commentary class always seems to think that we can solve a problem by having better/smarter regulatory oversight (implying that previously either people weren't given such responsibility, or that they were incompetent/negligent). But most of the time crises are caused by an "unknown unknown" (or black swan or whatever you wish). Regulators are not omniscient and they focus on preventing the causes of the last crisis, which is completely natural, but leads them to be blindsided by the future problem.
Does anyone really think that if we had had better regulation someone would have foreseen the mortgage crisis and stepped in? If thousands of people with huge financial incentives to do so failed, I doubt a regulator would. It's simply too difficult to divine the potential cause of problems in the future with complex systems. After all, central planning would work better if such regulation were possible (cf hayek / information asymmetry). And even if they had magically identified the problem, there would be enormous political obstacles to intervention, which would require causing clear short-term harm to avoid hypothetical long-term damage (accusations of crying wolf etc.).
So, what can / should we do? Instead of focusing on setting up more magic regulators, we need to have laws that structure the 'rules of the game' in a way that minimizes the potential for crises (e.g., reinstate the glass-steagal act). This is not to say that regulators have no useful role; it's just that "better regulatory oversight" is not going to avert a future financial crisis.
edit: And Volcker agrees with me too
Monday, October 19, 2009
Saturday, October 17, 2009
Détente
After weeks of back-and-forth negotiations, I’ve finally secured an apparent stalemate in my battle with the apartment cleaning service. For weeks I’ve been trying – requesting, cajoling and begging – the service staff to reduce the level of service to no avail. I find it disconcerting to return to the apartment and have everything put away / cleaned up. I’d rather that they just change the towels and sheets every few days, and do nothing more. Maybe mop every couple of weeks. But, really, this is impossible. All I can manage to do is have the windows not opened (a pain when you want to just come back and turn the AC on) and to occasionally have staff refrain from putting away my things.
On the plus side, apparently the door for the freezer is coming soon. This is very important because the freezer is a unit within the refrigerator, so without a door the entire refrigerator is really a freezer, even at the lowest setting. My milk hasn’t melted in a week.
On the plus side, apparently the door for the freezer is coming soon. This is very important because the freezer is a unit within the refrigerator, so without a door the entire refrigerator is really a freezer, even at the lowest setting. My milk hasn’t melted in a week.
Friday, October 16, 2009
The Storm
Miles off, a storm breaks. It ripples to our room.
You look up into the light so it catches one side
Of your face, your tight mouth, your startled eye.
You turn to me and when I call you come
Over and kneel beside me, wanting me to take
Your head between my hands as if it were
A delicate bowl that the storm might break.
You want me to get between you and the brute thunder.
Settling on your flesh my great hands stir,
Pulse on you and then, wondering how to do it, grip.
The storm rolls through me as your mouth opens.
-Ian Hamilton
It's borderline disreputable to post poetry on a blog, but I'm hoping to introduce a few more people to Hamilton's work. I couldn't decide where to start, too many of his poems are profoundly moving, so I simply decided to post the first one I had encountered.
You look up into the light so it catches one side
Of your face, your tight mouth, your startled eye.
You turn to me and when I call you come
Over and kneel beside me, wanting me to take
Your head between my hands as if it were
A delicate bowl that the storm might break.
You want me to get between you and the brute thunder.
Settling on your flesh my great hands stir,
Pulse on you and then, wondering how to do it, grip.
The storm rolls through me as your mouth opens.
-Ian Hamilton
It's borderline disreputable to post poetry on a blog, but I'm hoping to introduce a few more people to Hamilton's work. I couldn't decide where to start, too many of his poems are profoundly moving, so I simply decided to post the first one I had encountered.
Thursday, October 15, 2009
Education
Dinner yesterday with an interesting cross-section of Ghanaians and ex-pats, long discussion about development (or lack thereof). One comment highlighted an interesting point: In African developing countries, there is a far greater language barrier between the highly-educated class and non-educated (legacy of colonialism and multiplicity of local ethnic languages) than elsewhere. As a result, getting an education cleaves you from your roots/society…if you go to university, you enter a new class of people and are separated from your background. So it's not surprising that the ruling classes, insofar as they are the most educated, don't serve their people (no sense of solidarity to inspire noblesse oblige or similar civic duty).
That said, it's not like the 'men of the people' (zuma, imin) rulers have a good track record of serving society. And, furthermore, serving "society" could mean just serving your family / tribe rather than the nation, so -- on second thought -- it's probably stretching things to read development implications into the language/education barrier.
That said, it's not like the 'men of the people' (zuma, imin) rulers have a good track record of serving society. And, furthermore, serving "society" could mean just serving your family / tribe rather than the nation, so -- on second thought -- it's probably stretching things to read development implications into the language/education barrier.
Tuesday, October 13, 2009
hopeful
“The guarantees given to Ireland are not guarantees. They were a political declaration in a style such that the Irish wolf filled its stomach and the Lisbon goat remained whole.” – Spokesman for Vaclav Klaus.
I would be tremendously happy if one obstinate old Czech manages to stifle the imperialist Europhile dream. Just think of de villepin’s impotent fury (how dare such a little nation etc.)
I would be tremendously happy if one obstinate old Czech manages to stifle the imperialist Europhile dream. Just think of de villepin’s impotent fury (how dare such a little nation etc.)
Most beautiful London morning I have ever
Long autumnal light and cold crisp air extend deep into the day, then softly close. Wandering around Westminster, cocooned by Vespertine and small besides the ornate white blocks. And in the evening the sky lit up with fluorescent clouds
Wednesday, October 7, 2009
In pursuit of randomized sampling
Over the weekend I visited coca farmers, monitoring the implementation of the Harvard fair trade survey I’ve been helping with. Made the terrible mistake of leaving Accra at 6pm, which led to an hour or more of traffic en route to the Achimoda bus station. From there took a tro-tro to the town of Kofiriduo (spelling wrong), about 3 hours away (should be less, but the minibus stopped by another city on the way).
From there it was another 20 minute tro-tro to the largest town near the farming community; the tro-tro deposited us at an empty gas station in the middle of nowhere a bit before 11 at night. Luckily the owner of our guesthouse was roused by phone and he eventually emerged from the darkness and led us back into the bush. Our resting place was a paleo-hacienda set amidst a half-dozen small 2-room houses in circle cluster, oddly reminiscent of pioneer settlements. No running water, of course. Outside the house cinematic high contrast white lighting illuminated the edge of a palm frond forest, a banana orchid stretching into the darkness, and goats skittered between houses
Next day we woke around 6:30am to walk to the town. The area consisted of a series of sharp mountain ridges and broad, uneven valleys, all covered in a dark green forest carpet. From the town we took a taxi for 15 minutes to get to the base of a nearby mountain and then set off. The narrow, overgrown trail – dark bushes crowding, obscuring the path – wound upward for couple of hours, passing through beautiful tropical rainforest. At one point we crossed a boggy expanse, edging along half-submerged wobbly tree trunks and, after a dozen trees, leaping to the edge of the forest marsh.
Eventually we reached the village community, which was scattered into 2-3 house clusters along the slope. Our guides, whose assistance we had requested at the mountain base village, took us to the village chief’s house. We gathered on the pseudo-porch of his long, narrow concrete hut, sitting on a smattering of plastic chairs, wooden blocks and benches. Since the villagers only spoke Twi or other local dialects, there was nothing for me to do besides sit and watch as the leader of the survey team, Daniel, spoke with the village chief and explained our project. With a small, round head, heavily-creased face and gap-toothed grin, the chief was more than happy to let us proceed.
So with assistance from some of the local farmers, we split up and walked separately from house cluster to house cluster, briefly speaking with whoever was around (typically women) to assess which, if any, households farmed coca. After completing the village inventory over the course of several hours, we reconvened and randomly selected five of the coca farmers for in-depth interviews.
The village itself, while very poor, looked reasonably healthy. Unlike places in Kenya, the fields were green and lush, and the people were not skeletal. Men were out farming (I assume), while women were with the children (interestingly, average family size seemed to be ~3-4 kids, not the 5+ I expected). Chicken, goats, lambs and even ducks running around everywhere, but no pigs. Lambs formed a chorus of high-pitched whinnies, chiming like a demented crèche. And butterflies were everywhere, flitting in and out amongst the bushes, a wild range of colors and sizes.
After observing the interview for an hour or so, Maja and I departed in order to return to Accra before it got too dark. The overcast day had turned markedly darker, and we could hear thunder in the distance as we rushed back down the mountain. Back at the base village we could get a clear sit of the horizon and see sharp line as the black clouds advanced toward us. We had returned without a clear plan for how to escape the base village, since there were no taxies and we had no phone numbers, and now the oncoming storm made the issue urgent. Asking around, we soon had the entire village gathered around us. Trying to work out a taxi phone number. Everyone knew someone who might know. But as the rain start to fall and a couple of kids set off to find a taxi by bicycle, I knew we were fucked. The patchy semi-thatched town gazebo hardly seemed sufficient for the coming storm.
Then our salvation, rusting yellow hulk, trundled around the corner. It turns out that there is a sort of minibus service running to the village, and we immediately hoped inside just as the monsoon erupted, sheeting rain against the metal. Inside only weathered patches of yellow paint remained; the rest stripped to bare metal. The dashboard was full of gaping holes, the roof leaked and the engine roared down around dirt mount roads like a mechanical beast from Sorcerer. But what was really remarkable was the water coming up at us, from where the bottom of the vehicle had rusted away.
After a while we passed through the storm and reached Kofiradou. At this point I was quite exhausted, and fortunately the rest of the journey to Accra proved unremarkable.
From there it was another 20 minute tro-tro to the largest town near the farming community; the tro-tro deposited us at an empty gas station in the middle of nowhere a bit before 11 at night. Luckily the owner of our guesthouse was roused by phone and he eventually emerged from the darkness and led us back into the bush. Our resting place was a paleo-hacienda set amidst a half-dozen small 2-room houses in circle cluster, oddly reminiscent of pioneer settlements. No running water, of course. Outside the house cinematic high contrast white lighting illuminated the edge of a palm frond forest, a banana orchid stretching into the darkness, and goats skittered between houses
Next day we woke around 6:30am to walk to the town. The area consisted of a series of sharp mountain ridges and broad, uneven valleys, all covered in a dark green forest carpet. From the town we took a taxi for 15 minutes to get to the base of a nearby mountain and then set off. The narrow, overgrown trail – dark bushes crowding, obscuring the path – wound upward for couple of hours, passing through beautiful tropical rainforest. At one point we crossed a boggy expanse, edging along half-submerged wobbly tree trunks and, after a dozen trees, leaping to the edge of the forest marsh.
Eventually we reached the village community, which was scattered into 2-3 house clusters along the slope. Our guides, whose assistance we had requested at the mountain base village, took us to the village chief’s house. We gathered on the pseudo-porch of his long, narrow concrete hut, sitting on a smattering of plastic chairs, wooden blocks and benches. Since the villagers only spoke Twi or other local dialects, there was nothing for me to do besides sit and watch as the leader of the survey team, Daniel, spoke with the village chief and explained our project. With a small, round head, heavily-creased face and gap-toothed grin, the chief was more than happy to let us proceed.
So with assistance from some of the local farmers, we split up and walked separately from house cluster to house cluster, briefly speaking with whoever was around (typically women) to assess which, if any, households farmed coca. After completing the village inventory over the course of several hours, we reconvened and randomly selected five of the coca farmers for in-depth interviews.
The village itself, while very poor, looked reasonably healthy. Unlike places in Kenya, the fields were green and lush, and the people were not skeletal. Men were out farming (I assume), while women were with the children (interestingly, average family size seemed to be ~3-4 kids, not the 5+ I expected). Chicken, goats, lambs and even ducks running around everywhere, but no pigs. Lambs formed a chorus of high-pitched whinnies, chiming like a demented crèche. And butterflies were everywhere, flitting in and out amongst the bushes, a wild range of colors and sizes.
After observing the interview for an hour or so, Maja and I departed in order to return to Accra before it got too dark. The overcast day had turned markedly darker, and we could hear thunder in the distance as we rushed back down the mountain. Back at the base village we could get a clear sit of the horizon and see sharp line as the black clouds advanced toward us. We had returned without a clear plan for how to escape the base village, since there were no taxies and we had no phone numbers, and now the oncoming storm made the issue urgent. Asking around, we soon had the entire village gathered around us. Trying to work out a taxi phone number. Everyone knew someone who might know. But as the rain start to fall and a couple of kids set off to find a taxi by bicycle, I knew we were fucked. The patchy semi-thatched town gazebo hardly seemed sufficient for the coming storm.
Then our salvation, rusting yellow hulk, trundled around the corner. It turns out that there is a sort of minibus service running to the village, and we immediately hoped inside just as the monsoon erupted, sheeting rain against the metal. Inside only weathered patches of yellow paint remained; the rest stripped to bare metal. The dashboard was full of gaping holes, the roof leaked and the engine roared down around dirt mount roads like a mechanical beast from Sorcerer. But what was really remarkable was the water coming up at us, from where the bottom of the vehicle had rusted away.
After a while we passed through the storm and reached Kofiradou. At this point I was quite exhausted, and fortunately the rest of the journey to Accra proved unremarkable.
Departure
Dark and dusty strip of highway lit by kerosene lamps and dim yellow bulbs. Scratchy jam blaring from the only solid building in sight, a 3 story concrete slab pockmarked by balconies. Crowded onto the street, masses of people reduce the road to a long, narrow single lane stretch. Waiting for various minivan/buses (tro-tros) at unmarked yet universally recognized stops along the way, people mill in the street about and hawkers make good business.
Suddenly a tro-tro approaches and the crowd bursts into ferocious activity, pressing up against the still-moving vehicle. K-thunk and the metal door snaps open, a writhing mass pushing and shoving into the yawning cavity. And then all at once the crowd ceases; some ebb away, returning to idle waiting, and the tro-tro, satiated, departs
Suddenly a tro-tro approaches and the crowd bursts into ferocious activity, pressing up against the still-moving vehicle. K-thunk and the metal door snaps open, a writhing mass pushing and shoving into the yawning cavity. And then all at once the crowd ceases; some ebb away, returning to idle waiting, and the tro-tro, satiated, departs
Sunday, October 4, 2009
Bjork / Vespertine
Busy weekend, including hiking up to remote villages to interview farmers and meeting a gang leaderer (chief zaatchi) in the slum of sodom and gomorrah. To be detailed later. For now just time for a nice quote from Bjork. Probably my biggest crush at the moment.
"It sounds like a winter record. If you wake up in the middle of the night, and you go out in the garden, everything's going on out there that you wouldn't know about. That's the mood I'm trying to get. Snow owls represent that very well."
"It sounds like a winter record. If you wake up in the middle of the night, and you go out in the garden, everything's going on out there that you wouldn't know about. That's the mood I'm trying to get. Snow owls represent that very well."
Saturday, October 3, 2009
Farmer interviews
Strange peering into passing windows. Sitting under a shade tree, listening without uncomprehending answers (number of marriages, children) delivered one-by-one with his warm smile upturned at the corners. When did they meet?
Instead mutely watch as the interviewer records his nationality, age, coca production, political vote and economic conditions. Unthinking translation into a language I understand.
Instead mutely watch as the interviewer records his nationality, age, coca production, political vote and economic conditions. Unthinking translation into a language I understand.
Thursday, October 1, 2009
Afro-optimism
It’s easy to be an afro-optimist in Ghana. Although the country is still bedeviled by the minor ailments of modern Africa – insipid, incompetent bureaucrats, unimaginable red tape, and systematic petty corruption – it’s an entirely livable. Things more or less work, the power stays on 90% of the time, poverty is not nearly as extensive as India/Uganda/etc., crime is not bad/dangerous, and the klepocratic class is less brazen than in, say, Kenya or Nigeria. Democratic elections work, with no sign of military or autocratic relapse.
And there are tremendous economic opportunities here. Agriculture, for example, is comparatively backwards, but the natural tropical climate has fantastic potential. Productivity can match world-class standards, transport to Europe is cheap/fast, and the growing season is upwards of 10 months for some crops (e.g., mangos). Historically Ghana has lacked startup capital (vs. Kenya/Nigeria) for local entrepreneurship but that is changing rapidly as the countries financial system develops. Commercial-scale farmers are developing in several markets, including rice.
As a fantastic example, I was recently discussing agriculture with a local Ghaniain who works for Technoserve. He was bemoaning the lack of local seedlings for fruit orchards, which currently have to be imported from Europe at great cost. I casually said to him that he should start a business here, and his response was: “Why yes, I am doing so. Here is my business card. We have just signed a contract with a Dutch company to start a joint venture here.” Amazing!
So, things are looking good for Ghana. Let’s just hope that the recent oil discoveries don’t fuck this up.
And there are tremendous economic opportunities here. Agriculture, for example, is comparatively backwards, but the natural tropical climate has fantastic potential. Productivity can match world-class standards, transport to Europe is cheap/fast, and the growing season is upwards of 10 months for some crops (e.g., mangos). Historically Ghana has lacked startup capital (vs. Kenya/Nigeria) for local entrepreneurship but that is changing rapidly as the countries financial system develops. Commercial-scale farmers are developing in several markets, including rice.
As a fantastic example, I was recently discussing agriculture with a local Ghaniain who works for Technoserve. He was bemoaning the lack of local seedlings for fruit orchards, which currently have to be imported from Europe at great cost. I casually said to him that he should start a business here, and his response was: “Why yes, I am doing so. Here is my business card. We have just signed a contract with a Dutch company to start a joint venture here.” Amazing!
So, things are looking good for Ghana. Let’s just hope that the recent oil discoveries don’t fuck this up.
Things I saw hawked on the way to work this morning
Street sellers flood the 4-lane road at every red light / traffic jam; impulse buy options include:
-Styrofoam blocks
-Elmer’s glue twelve packs
-Painted wood seaguls (life size)
-Etch N Sketch sets
-Umbrellas (on a sunny day)
-Walking canes
-Dead mice (on a string)
-Shell-logo blankets (bright yellow)
-Velvet blue textured tackboard
-Full, door-sized mirrors
-Of course also the more logical assortment of water, bread, fruits, chips, fried plantains and donuts.
-Styrofoam blocks
-Elmer’s glue twelve packs
-Painted wood seaguls (life size)
-Etch N Sketch sets
-Umbrellas (on a sunny day)
-Walking canes
-Dead mice (on a string)
-Shell-logo blankets (bright yellow)
-Velvet blue textured tackboard
-Full, door-sized mirrors
-Of course also the more logical assortment of water, bread, fruits, chips, fried plantains and donuts.
Sunday, September 27, 2009
Another reason to blame missionaries
Maybe the strangest thing about Ghana: Cab after cab blasting Kenny Rodgers. Country music is absurdly popular here. Surreal experience of listening to an urban Ghanaian imitating the southern country drawl, singing about being all on your own 'cause the wife has left you for another man.
In other news, best story in a long time: "Kids send Marcus the Lamb to Slaughter”
In other news, best story in a long time: "Kids send Marcus the Lamb to Slaughter”
Friday, September 25, 2009
daytime
The warm yellow fraying of my window curtains starts around 6am, and then it is pitch black by 6:30pm.
City life with an unnatural cadence: Buzzing with street boys kicking stones amidst loud crowds at 7:30am; empty and dark at 7:30pm, a quiet street corner with dark figures standing shoulder-to-shoulder, bent over a flickering orange kerosene lamp.
City life with an unnatural cadence: Buzzing with street boys kicking stones amidst loud crowds at 7:30am; empty and dark at 7:30pm, a quiet street corner with dark figures standing shoulder-to-shoulder, bent over a flickering orange kerosene lamp.
Thursday, September 24, 2009
Werner Herzog school of film
Study film with Werner for a weekend.
My favorite rules:
"7. Excerpts of films will be discussed, which could include your submitted films; they may be shown and discussed as well. Depending on the materials, the attention will revolve around essential questions: how does music function in film? How do you narrate a story? (This will certainly depart from the brainless teachings of three-act-screenplays). How do you sensitize an audience? How is space created and understood by an audience? How do you produce and edit a film? How do you create illumination and an ecstasy of truth?
8. Related, but more practical subjects, will be the art of lockpicking. Traveling on foot. The exhilaration of being shot at unsuccessfully. The athletic side of filmmaking. The creation of your own shooting permits. The neutralization of bureaucracy. Guerrilla tactics. Self reliance.
9. Censorship will be enforced. There will be no talk of shamans, of yoga classes, nutritional values, herbal teas, discovering your Boundaries, and Inner Growth.
Related, but more reflective, will be a reading list: if possible, read Virgil's "Georgics", read "Hemingway's "The short happy life of Francis Macomber", The Poetic Edda, translated by Lee M. Hollander (in particular the Prophecy of the Seeress), Bernal Diaz del Castillo "True History of the Conquest of New Spain"."
Mailing address
I now have a mailing address (sortof):
Attn: Piotr Brzezinski
Maxwell Court
PO Box 3477, Accra
#84 Forth Ringway, Ringway Estate, Osu Accra
Because there are almost no street names here -- my road being an exception -- there is no direct delivery of mail here. So the only way to send/receive packages is either going to a PO box, or sending it to a local FedEx / DHL office (which will hold it for local pickup).
Attn: Piotr Brzezinski
Maxwell Court
PO Box 3477, Accra
#84 Forth Ringway, Ringway Estate, Osu Accra
Because there are almost no street names here -- my road being an exception -- there is no direct delivery of mail here. So the only way to send/receive packages is either going to a PO box, or sending it to a local FedEx / DHL office (which will hold it for local pickup).
Wednesday, September 23, 2009
Sunday, September 20, 2009
Life in Ghana
Accra, as Ryzard Kapuscinski put it, is a village that has managed to replicate itself a thousand times. It is an insular, safe and unremarkable place, a spread-out hodgepodge of Westernized estates, squat towers, shanties. Like in the village, its inhabitants have a severely limited sense of direction: the city is entirely navigated based on landmarks (go left at MegaTV, just past Aviation House) – street names are unheard of.
And, as in village, there are many dirt roads. Currently, in fact, I have a moat around my house. I’m staying at 7-bedroom mansion with a Harvard research team, and the exposed plastic pipe that runs along the sunken dirt road burst a few days ago. The street children squatting across from us bandaged it with a plastic bag, but this didn’t last long. So over the past few days the whole street has flooded and city officials remain nowhere to be seen. Someone, however, created a series a series of dirt islands in the middle (so you can hop island to island down the street) – very dangerous for returning home drunk (no streetlights, of course). And the water level is still rising…
Most of the time I’ve been working in Accra, but last week I managed to get outside on a data gathering trip to Kumasi, Ghana’s second city. The trip was unremarkable – fairly lush tropical forest along the way, poor towns, etc. – except for the bus ride itself. Each bus ride began with an ~hour-long Pentecostal service delivered by a preacher man standing in the aisle as the bus hurtled down the road. When the first passenger joined in, bellowing in tongues as the preacher chanted “jesus, jeeeesus,” I initially thought that he was shouting over the sermon on his cell phone. Even the 6am bus ride featured prayer time.
And after the sermon finished, the quack medicine salesmen/women got up. Each in turn, they advertised their malarial cures, impotence creams, and blood purifiers. The jovial crowd laughed both at and with these charlatans, but still bought the products. Finally, in the worst stage, came the Nollywood movies. The problem with these movies is not the mind-numbingly poor soap narrative, but rather the screeching, nails-on-chalkboard audio quality, played a maximum volume. It’s literally unlistenable, and deafeningly loud.
So, for future bus rides, I’m going to track down a semi-mythical VIP bus that costs twice as much but, allegedly, plays terrible western movies instead (Lord of War, no doubt).
Anyway, that’s my life thus far in Ghana. Next week I’ll be starting at Technoserve, changing gears a bit after working on the research project.
-Piotr
And, as in village, there are many dirt roads. Currently, in fact, I have a moat around my house. I’m staying at 7-bedroom mansion with a Harvard research team, and the exposed plastic pipe that runs along the sunken dirt road burst a few days ago. The street children squatting across from us bandaged it with a plastic bag, but this didn’t last long. So over the past few days the whole street has flooded and city officials remain nowhere to be seen. Someone, however, created a series a series of dirt islands in the middle (so you can hop island to island down the street) – very dangerous for returning home drunk (no streetlights, of course). And the water level is still rising…
Most of the time I’ve been working in Accra, but last week I managed to get outside on a data gathering trip to Kumasi, Ghana’s second city. The trip was unremarkable – fairly lush tropical forest along the way, poor towns, etc. – except for the bus ride itself. Each bus ride began with an ~hour-long Pentecostal service delivered by a preacher man standing in the aisle as the bus hurtled down the road. When the first passenger joined in, bellowing in tongues as the preacher chanted “jesus, jeeeesus,” I initially thought that he was shouting over the sermon on his cell phone. Even the 6am bus ride featured prayer time.
And after the sermon finished, the quack medicine salesmen/women got up. Each in turn, they advertised their malarial cures, impotence creams, and blood purifiers. The jovial crowd laughed both at and with these charlatans, but still bought the products. Finally, in the worst stage, came the Nollywood movies. The problem with these movies is not the mind-numbingly poor soap narrative, but rather the screeching, nails-on-chalkboard audio quality, played a maximum volume. It’s literally unlistenable, and deafeningly loud.
So, for future bus rides, I’m going to track down a semi-mythical VIP bus that costs twice as much but, allegedly, plays terrible western movies instead (Lord of War, no doubt).
Anyway, that’s my life thus far in Ghana. Next week I’ll be starting at Technoserve, changing gears a bit after working on the research project.
-Piotr
Premise
This will be a rarely-updated log of thoughts and experiences while I work in Ghana. It seems presumptuous to simply bombard people with update emails, so I might as well just put notes up here and let people read them if they should so choose.
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